Leading organisations are making increasing use of online prediction markets that give precise probabilities of a certain event occurring. This trend has direct and wide-ranging value for strategists.
By Russ Ray

Long-term planning requires predictions. The more accurate the predictions, the better the plan – and vice versa for poor predictions. In the last decade, a remarkable innovation, 'prediction markets', has evolved that can make extremely accurate predictions regarding various t ypes of event or development: business, political, scientific, technological, environmental, cultural, catastrophic, and most other realms of both human and natural activity.

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